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Sunday, January 20, 2013

Conference Championship Sunday

Only two games remain before Superbowl XLVII and there are a lot of familiar faces in the Conference Championships. The Ravens and Patriots will renew their constant playoff clashes in a rematch of last year's AFC title game and the 49ers will try to avoid a repeat performance of last year's muffed punt fiasco against the Falcons in the NFC title game. All in all, these are a pair of really good games. The NFC we have some high flying offenses, while the AFC will be another Pats Ravens match up we will remember for a long time. So let's see who's going to the Superbowl!

The Baltimore Ravens vs The New England Patriots
The Ravens have fought for two great wins in the playoffs. The problem is if last week was a 'miracle', as proclaimed by the Raven's radio broadcasters, a win the week could just be a direct act from some higher power. The Raven's are going to need to get Ray Rice going in this game. As we saw last week, if he can find some space, it opens up the passing game. The Patriots have the 9th best rushing defense in the league, so the Ravens might have some issues moving the ball. As for the rest of the offense, the other man to watch is WR Anquan Boldin. Everyone in the media is talking about WR Torrey Smith and his ability to go deep. That's great and all, but Boldin is the guy that opens the defense up for Smith. He attracts defenders because of his play making ability shown through out his long NFL career. The other thing that could happen would be that the new emphasis on Smith could open up Bolden. Either way, Boldin will play a huge role today. The Raven's defense, known for it's tenacity, could be the weakness for the Ravens. Though Ray Lewis is playing like he's from another planet right now, Tom Brady knows how to work a defense into a tail spin.
Speaking of Tom Brady, he's having another banner year. He has thrown for nearly 5,000 and has led this offense to 5 games with 40 or more points. The Pats are also blessed with options on offense with Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, Stevan Riddley. We all know what the Patriot offense can do and will do today, the major question is what the defense will do. The Pats have a stout run defense, but the pass defense is terrible. Ranking 29th in the league, the Patriots allow an average of 271.4 yards per game though the air. That should give Joe Flacco and his receiving corps plenty of opportunities.
So who wins? It's going to be close. Both defenses have major flaws and I think the teams will go back and forth for a while. I just can't pick against the Patriots. I have New England in the Superbowl again after they win 34-31.

The San Francisco 49ers vs The Atlanta Falcons 
Matt Ryan finally won a playoff game. As a reward, he gets to play against one of the most elusive quarterbacks in the game. Fun for us, not for him. The Falcon's passing game is insane  Matt Ryan has one heck of an arm and has receivers like Julio Jones and Roddy White to throw to. There is no doubt that the Falcon offense that averages 281.8 passing yards per game will show up. The problems will be the defense and the running game. Micheal Turner has had a pretty good year. The problem is that the offense is averaging less than 90 rushing yards per game. Some of this can be attributed to all the passing they do, but it still isn't a great sign if they want to have a chance. The defense has let in huge amounts of yardage to a lot of teams and have been burned a couple times by mobile QBs. That isn't a good sign for a defense taking on Colin Kaepernick.
Kaepernick is the 49ers reason for success. His abilities to run, pass, and extend plays are a deadly combination. Kaeprnick has also gotten some help from veteran running back Frank Gore. With over 1,000 yards, Gore has been a great security blanket for his young quarterback and a driving force in the middle of the field. Just like the Falcons, the 49ers have an array of talent in the receiving game. Vernon Davis and Micheal Crabtree are just a few of the names that will be called a lot when Kaepernick is throwing the ball. The 49er defense is also really good. They don't give up a ton of yards through the air or ground.
I think the 49ers are going to win this game because they have more experience and more play makers on both sides of the ball. The 49er win 38-29.

Saturday, January 12, 2013

NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round

With a fresh slate of classes and CM-Life taking over, today's post is a little short and a little late. Last week's Wildcard Weekend didn't disappoint. All three games proved to be pretty interesting and all the games went the way I picked them. Whoo hoo. This week, it gets a little harder for the teams that tasted victory last week. The Packers head west to take on a 49er team that beat them 30-22 in week one and Baltimore and Denver clash in Peyton's first playoff game as a Bronco. Sunday gives us a battle of the NFC's best and hottest teams in the Atlanta-Seattle game and another blowout rematch in the Texans-Patriots game. Who has a spot in the Conference Championships? Let's find out.

The Baltimore Ravens vs The Denver Broncos 
Who would have thought Denver would have been here a year ago. Of course, when a team adds Peyton Manning to the roster, almost anything can happen. Manning has lead the Broncos by passing for 4,659 and 37 touchdowns which is hardly a shocker. The Bronco defense is the real story for Denver. They only allow an average of 199.6 passing yards per game and 91.1 rushing yards per game. This should be enough to hold the Ravens mediocre offense in check. The Ravens will need RB Ray Rice and QB Joe Flacco to have career days if they want to win. Joe Flacco was able to do this when these two teams face in week 15 by throwiing for 254 yards and two touchdowns. Now the Ravens need Ray Rice need to show up this time.   The once stellar Ravens defense looks like it could be torn up by Manning again this season and I think they will.
According to the NFL on FOX, Manning is 0-3 in playoff games when the temp is below 40 degrees. The forecast calls for a kick off temperature of 19 degrees. Though that is an interesting stat, the Broncos are 7-1 at home and are on an eleven game winning streak. I have the Broncos winning 35-17.

The Green Bay Packers vs The San Francisco 49ers
The outcome of this game falls squarely on the Packer's defense. They need to stop the run for another week. The Packers did a hell of a job containing Adrian Peterson last week and they will need to do the same to Frank Gore this week. It will be a tough task since the 49ers average 155.7 rushing yards per game. San Fran QB Colin Kaepernick will be a great weapon for the 49ers because the Packer's have yet to face him and won't be able to handle his dual threat capability. When all is said and done, the 49ers will slow down Aaron Rodgers and tear up the Packers defense to win 33-20.

The Seattle Seahawks vs The Atlanta Falcons
This will be the first meeting of the season for these two teams which makes for interesting playoff games. The Seahawks will have to use RB Marshawn Lynch to attack a Falcon's defense that allows an average of 123.2 rushing yards per game. Russel Wilson will also help with his ability to make plays on the ground and extend his passing plays. Falcons QB Matt Ryan will have to face a defense that allows an average of 203.1 passing yards per game. The Falcons are also at a disadvantage because they lack in the running game.
I think the Seahawks defense will slow down the one dimensional Atlanta offense and Marshawn Lynch will run rampant on the other side of the ball. I got the Seahawks winning 27-19.

The Houston Texans vs The New England Patriots
This match up doesn't look good for the Houston Texans. Ever since New England their  blasted them 42-14  back in December, I haven't been able to see this team getting to the Superbowl. New England has Tom Brady and the rest of that exciting offense and a defense that can stop the run. That spells danger if you're the Texans. The Texan's one hope is in the passing game. Tight End Owen Daniels is a mismatch and could cause some issues for the Patriot defense.
In the end, I don't have enough faith in the Houston defense. Tom Brady carves them up for a second time this season and leads the Pats to a 29-10 victory.

Thanks for reading!

Monday, January 7, 2013

Max's BCS National Championship Pick

Watch this video to see who Max picked to win!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gei3pFgu8rI

After a rough start, Max hopes to improve on his 1-3 record this year!

Thanks for watching! 

The National Championship: Notre Dame vs Alabama

Well this is it. Months of football, tailgates, fight songs, mascots and anticipation have led to this: The National Championship. On one side you have the up start Irish who have used their defense to get to this game. On the other side you have Alabama, the reigning National Champions who have a defense that can match Notre Dame's and a supreme rushing attack.
Way back at the start of the season, I had Notre Dame going 8-4 with losses to MSU, Michigan, Oklahoma and USC. I couldn't have been more wrong. They have shut down all of the teams on their schedule with their defense. They allow an average of 10.3 points per game and allowed a season high 26 in a triple overtime game against Pitt. Manti Te'o is the star of this defense and should receive a lot of credit for how he rallies this team. My issue with the Irish is their lack of an offense. Yes, I know they went undefeated, but the Irish offense was woeful in many performances. If it wasn't for blowouts against a weak Navy side and a lack luster Miami, their offensive stats would be laughable. Just look at Everett Golson's stats against Michigan, which had one of the better defenses they faced. 3-8 for 30 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 19.0. I expect a similar night for him against the Tide tonight. The only hope the Irish have are their run game which averages 202.5 yards per game.
At the start of the season, I saw Alabama losing one game and just missing out on the National Championship game. if the infamous K-State and Oregon weekend didn't happen, I would be looking really good, but enough of that. Alabama has one heck of a defense. They allowed an average of 10.7 points per game while thriving in the tough SEC. Unlike the Irish, the Tide have an offense that scores an average of 38.5 points per game and averages 224.6 yards per game on the ground. RBs Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon will have issues at first, but will start to find running lanes behind their powerful line. QB A.J. McCarron will put the Tide well ahead of the Irish with his ability to extend plays and make the necessary throws.
When the wistle blows on this one, I see a game that looks very similar to last year's. The Alabama defense will pin the Irish back in their own territory for most of the game which will allow the Tide's run game to take care of business. I see the Tide winning their second National Championship 26-10.

Saturday, January 5, 2013

NFL Wildcard Weekend

After 17 weeks of regular season football, the playoffs finally begin with some great wildcard games. There's a little bit of a story line to satisfy every football fan this weekend. The Green Bay Minnesota game features two division rivals clashing for the third time, the Cincinnati Houston game promises playoff success for two franchises that haven't had much, the Indianapolis Baltimore game is rich in iconic football history, and the Seattle Washington game features a dream pairing of rookie quarterbacks that have turned their franchises around. What a weekend we have ahead of us.

The Cincinnati Bengals vs The Houston Texans
Houston seemed to have it made just a few weeks ago. It looked like they would have a bye week and maybe even home field advantage. Now they have to put their season on the line one week earlier than expected. I think the latest run for the Texans should wake them up a bit for this game. If Houston want to win, they need to exploit their superiority on both sides of the run game. RB Arian Foster should prove to be a valuable weapon on the offensive side of the ball. Foster should be able to make a sometimes shaky Bengal's run defense look bad with his play making ability. He's rushed for seven 100 yard games this season  and can really beat up an offensive line. The Houston defense, with J.J. Watt, have stopped a lot of good rushing attacks this season. They give up an average of 97.5 rushing yards per game which is seventh best in the league. If the Bengals want to win, their defense must give them a chance. When the Bengals allow more than 20 points in a game, they are 2-5. When they hold a team to under 20 points, they are 8-1. The Bengal's offense has a lot of play makers, but they struggle moving the football consistently as well as scoring. If the defense can hold Foster and Andre Johnson back, I think Andy Dalton can get the job done for the Bengals.
The problem is that I don't have enough faith in the Bengal defense. I see Foster running his way to the 34-20 win.

The Minnesota Vikings vs The Green Bay Packers
One could say that we saw a preview of this game last week, but they would be missing the fact Green Bay was missing Randall Cobb and Charles Woodson. The interesting aspect of this game is that we got a good runner vs a bad run defense and a good passer against a bad passing defense. Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson is the best running back in the game right now. He tore up Green Bay's 17th ranked rush defense last week and he will do it again this week. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers also had a great week against the Vikings last week. His 365 yards and four touchdowns against the 24th ranked pass defense should be replicated again this week. In the end, one of these two teams is going to have to step up and stop the other team's strength or find a different way to win by improving on their weaknesses.
Last week's game came down to a field goal, so the best way to pick this game might be through a coin toss. I'll just bank on the home field advantage for the Packers. I have Green Bay winning 37-35.

The Indianapolis Colts vs The Baltimore Ravens 
The NFL history is so rich in this one. I love when these two play just for that. Baltimore comes in with a pretty good offense and a defense that has been giving up a lot of yards, but still grinding against teams and getting wins. I think it will be interesting to see how this squad plays knowing that if they lose Ray Lewis' career in the NFL is over. It will also be interesting to see how they play Andrew Luck. I think RB Ray Rice is the key to the game for the Ravens. In the past few weeks he has struggled and the Ravens have lost. Now he gets a chance to make a big difference against the 29th ranked rush defense. If he can beat the Colts on the ground, I think it will give Joe Flacco some confidence which will make Baltimore a complete team. For the Colts to win, they need QB Andrew Luck to play one of the best games of his young career and have one of the best defensive performances of the year. Luck has taken a lot of pressure against good teams with good defenses. If he can escape a few sacks and take care of the ball, I think he can lead his team to victory. I just don't think the offensive line is up for the challenge.
I think the Raven's defense will be too much for the Colts offense which leads to a 24-19 victory for Baltimore.

The Seattle Seahawks vs The Washington Redskins 
This is the game of the weekend. Rookie QBs Russel Wilson and Robert Griffin III are going to put on a show on Sunday Night. They key to this game is which team can limit the damage the other QB is going to do. Both QBs are dual threat and have great running backs to back them up. They can both make plays and both don't seem to fear a thing on the football field. Besides the QBs, both teams rank in the top five in the running game and have less than stellar passing offenses in terms of yards per game. The one thing that separates these two teams is their passing defenses. Seattle allows an average of 203.1 passing yards per game which puts them sixth in the league. Washington allows an average of 281.9 passing yards per game. I think that's what pushes this game in favor of the Seahawks. I think Seattle wins via Russel Wilson's arm 29-25.

Thanks for reading!

Friday, January 4, 2013

Bowl Season comes to a close

After a few great weeks of bowls and some decent picks, we have made it to the final stretch. Only three games separate us from the National Championship. Due to getting ready to head back to school and the other things the end of the holidays bring these picks will be short!
 Enjoy!


The Cotton Bowl - Texas A&M VS Oklahoma
Texas A&M has QB Johnny Manziel who won the Heisman earlier in the season. His 43 total touchdowns and 3,419 yards through the air are pretty amazing. Only two teams with very stout defenses have stopped him. With linebacker pressure, Oklahoma can beat him, but I don't think the Sooners will be able to apply the pressure. Oklahoma has weapons on the offensive side of the ball as well. QB Landry Jones as well as RB Damien Williams and WR Kenny Stills are all poised to have a big night. It will be a tough task for the Aggie defense to stop all three of them. In the end, I see this game as one that is nearly impossible to predict. Both teams have a lot of play makers on the offensive side of the ball and have solid defenses. The tipping point for me is Johnny Manziel. He's had a heck of a year and he's the Heisman winner. That's why the Aggies get my vote in this one. I think A&M will win 38-36.

Quick Picks!

BBVA Compass Bowl - Pittsburgh 28 Ole Miss-19
Player to watch: Pitt QB Tino Sunseri - He is a guy that can really throw the ball (3,103 yards 19TDs) and knows how to take care of the ball (2 interceptions). He is a senior leader and I think he leads the Panthers to victory.
Reason Pitt wins: They have the better defense. They will shut Ole Miss down and will pick apart the Rebel defense.

GoDaddy.com Bowl - Kent State 25 Arkansas State 38
Player to watch: Kent State RB Dri Archer - This guy can run the ball and catch the ball out of the backfield which makes him very dangerous. He averages 9 yards and rush and 15.6 yards per catch. With close to 2,000 yards of total offense, he is the best player on the field.
Reason Arkansas State wins: The Red Wolves have a great offense that is very even across the board. They have a great defense as well and will be able to contain Archer. Though this team is 9-3, all of their losses came to teams who went to bowl games and two losses came to teams who won 10 games this season. They are an under-rated team and I think they will show everyone what they are made of Sunday.

Thanks for reading!

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

BCS Predictions: Sugar and Fiesta

After a hard nosed Rose Bowl and lack luster Orange Bowl, the BCS now turns to the Sugar and Fiesta Bowls. The Sugar Bowl features one of the SEC's elite and a Big East school trying to prove that they belong. The Fiesta features two of the nation's best offenses as the dual in the desert. Needless to say, there are a couple of good games heading our way.

The Sugar Bowl - Louisville VS Florida 
Nothing spells disaster like Big East vs SEC during football season. The Big East always seems like a joke to everyone around the country and after their self destruction during conference re-alignment, the conference may never be respected. That being said, this Louisville team could change that tonight. Ranked as the 21st team in the nation, the Cardinals smashed through the regular season to a 10-2 record and were led by QB Teddy Bridgewater. He will be one of the best athletes on the field tonight and will threaten the Florida defense with his arm. Bridgewater threw for 3,452 yards this season with 25 touchdowns. He is a very actuate passer who completed 69% of his throws this year and only gave up 7 picks. Bridewater is also a mobile quarterback. He doesn't run down field a lot, but he can extend the play in the backfield by making people miss. The Louisville running game is ranked 100th in the nation in yards gained, but they gain the yards in key spots and score touchdowns. Jeremy Wright leads the rushing attack after an injury to Senorise Perry. Wright has 740 yards this season with 9 touchdowns. He will be the key to this game. If he can get some gains against this tough Florida defense, he opens up the playbook and allows Bridgewater to shine. Florida comes in as the favorites. The Gators' 11-1 record in the SEC is very impressive and they should give most of the credit to their defense. Florida's defense is ranked 3rd nationally in points allowed. Allowing 12.9 points per game will give even the most sluggish of offenses a chance to win. On the offensive side of the ball, the Gators have a solid running game led by RB Mike Gillislee. His 1,104 yards and 10 touchdowns lead the Gators and should be added to tonight. The other offensive weapon the Gators have is QB Jeff Driskel. He isn't such a great passer, but has the ability to run. With only 1,471 yards through the air, he makes up for it with his 404 yards on the ground.
I see this game coming down to Louisville's ability to handle the Florida defense. The Cardinal's offensive line has allowed 23 sacks on Bridgewater which is not a good sign. I see this game going much like the Gator's 2010 stomping of Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl. It wont be as high scoring, but Florida will dominate just the same. I see the Gators winning 31-10 with Louisville's 10 coming late.

The Fiesta Bowl - Kansas State VS Oregon 
This is one of the games I have been looking forward to the most. These are two of the best offenses in the nation and we were very close to seeing them in the National Championship. If there was a third place game for college football this year, this would be it. Kansas State has scored an average of 40.7 points per game this season. All of the credit for the offense goes to QB Colin Klein. He has 3,380 yards of total offense and 37 total touchdowns. He gets a lot done with his arm, but his legs have led him to more touchdowns. He will be the main contributor to the K-State offense, but if the Wildcats want to win, they are also going to need big performances from RB John Hubert and WR Tyler Lockett. Lockett averages 16.3 yards per catch and will be a thorn in the Oregon defense's side. Hubert, who rushed for 892 yards and 15 touchdowns this season, we be needed to take some of the pressure off of Klein. Oregon comes in with the second best scoring and rushing offense in the nation. Led by RB Kenjon Barner, the Ducks have put an average of 50.8 points per game while rushing for an average of 323.3 yards per game. Barner is the center piece of the rush attack. His powerful, yet graceful running ability allowed him to run for 1,624 yards and 21 touchdowns while averaging 6.5 yards per carry. Oregon's other weapons include QB Marcus Mariota, RB/WR De'Anthony Thomas and WR Josh Huff. Thomas has run for 686 yards this season and has caught 41 passes for 385 yards. The scary thing about him is that he averages 7.6 yards per rush and 9.4 yards per catch. K-State's ability to contain him will dictate their chances of winning. The glue that holds this offense together is Mariota. The freshman QB has been exactly what the Ducks needed after Darron Thomas left last year. He completes 69% of his passes, doesn't throw many interceptions and has some ridiculous stats.
As you can see, both offenses are raring to go, but this game will come down to the defenses. Both allow around 22 points per game and are well practiced because they have to face their own offenses. Both cause a good amount of turn overs and both bend with out breaking. So who can I pick? I think KSU's game against Baylor will tell the story. I think the Ducks run all over the K-State defense while Klein struggles just enough to give Oregon the win. The Ducks win a shoot out 40-35.

Thanks for reading!